As it is now confirmed that Nawaz Sharif would
be attending Modi’s oath taking ceremony on Monday, it might sound a good move
or gesture on Modi’s behalf to reach out to Pakistani counterpart along with
other SAARC nations. But why did it take Mr. Sharif so much time to accept the
invitation that to for just a ceremony? Let me analyse it for you.
It’s a no brainer that the Pakistan
Government runs in the shadow of Pakistani Army and ISI, the PM more or less is
just a puppet of the Army. Since independence, it was in 2013 when there Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf completed its
5 year term as elected government for the first time! Thanks to Pressure from
US and other allies of western world which cautioned the Army from interfering
with the Govt. That is success rate of Pakistani Democracy. Coming to Mr.
Sharif in specific he was the PM twice before getting elected last year, but
unfortunately he could not complete his full term in office even once. Both the
times he was unceremoniously booted out of office by the army in 1993 by General Abdul Vahied Kakar and by
General Musharaf in 1999. In 1997, Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League
(PML-N) won a landslide victory in the elections, defeating Benazir Bhutto and
her People's party. Commenting on his victory, the Pakistan media and
the people of Pakistan hoped that Sharif would provide a conservative but a
stable government benefit for Pakistan as he promised earlier. Besides Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, no other leader, in the history of Pakistan, has
enjoyed his level of popularity, and received the exclusive mandate from
all over the Pakistan to improve the all over conditions in Pakistan at same
time.
By now you could conclude how bad the
situation of Democracy in Pakistan is. Mr. Sharif during his election speeches
made the same old rhetoric of having friendly relations with India, resolving the
Kashmir Issue, Siachen issue, Sir Creek etc. He also offered to support India
as Most Favored Nation in the UN. This all might sound music to Indian and
Indian media who are having orgasm’s thinking of India-Pakistan will finally
forget the past and be friends again. Quite laughable and ridiculous to say so,
here it is why Mr. Sharif is not a free agent as far as India is concerned.
There is a brutal veto in the form of Pakistani generals, despite his big
announcements on normalizing ties with India during the election campaign;
Sharif really can't act without the intervention of the military. It’s the ISI
and Army which calls the shots from Islamabad. So no matter what the civilians
think of relations with India, Pakistani Army, ISI, religions fundamentals like
LeT will never like Pakistan to have good relations with India for decades to
come, this you can take it in writing from me. Some of the reasons why India
and Pakistan can never be in good relations are.
- First and most important thing to understand is Mr. Sharif is no angel; he was the same man who gave thumbs up to Kargil in 1999. Which, obviously he would deny now and shift the blame to Mr. Musharaf. Also, his brother who is the CM of Punjab state has close ties with Taliban and LeT, So please tread carefully with Pakistan because the snake is lurking in the grass and waiting to strike on any chance it gets.
- As I said previously that the Army and ISI are the real government of Pakistan, they are so power full that they could give Osama-bin-laden shelter in Abbott bad and the government did not even have news about it. Pakistani Army is such a rouge organisation that just can’t digest the fact that civil government wants to have normal ties with India hence it employees the so called non-state actors like Jamat ul dawa or LeT to sponsor terror in India and sabotage the entire peace process with Pakistan.
- Any normal relations with India mean Army and ISI is out of Business, that is the reason why even before Mr. Sharif was about to accept the invitation by Modi they sent terrorist to strike at Indian Diplomatic Office in Heart, Afghanistan. It was a warning from Army to Mr. Sharif about the consequences if he accepts the Invitation. In other words they reminded Mr. Sharif what General Musharaf did to him in 1999 when he was tried to build good relations with India, this did not go well with the Army and three months later Kargil happened and the rest as you know is history. Where Mr. Sharif’s government was thrown out and general Musharaf took over Pakistan. So, If Mr. Sharif wants to come to Delhi he must ensure that he has got his return ticket “confirmed” back to Islamabad and not travel on a “waiting list ticket”
- The China factor: As China grows its Economic, and Military influence over the Asian region it’s inevitable to observe how it would react to the growing bilateral ties between India and Pakistan. China is averse to see India’s economic growth and its influence over south Asian countries, because China’s aim is to be world number 1 and the only two countries which are capable to stop it is America and china. In the past decade we have seen that china has been warming up to Pakistan but in turn gave a tough time to Indian establishment on its north east borders and in South China Sea where ONGC was exploring oil. It has also not lost a single opportunity to make friends with our neighbors be it Sri Lanka, Maldives, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Tibet. We have had very strained relations with all these countries in the past decade, the only friends we had were Thailand where they managed to stage a coup, and they are trying very hard meddle with Japan in south china sea over a small group of Islands. In other words we can say that we have shot in our own foot by holding on to our ego rather than extending a hand of friendship with our neighbors. China would certainly not be impressed if India and Pak move ahead.
There are
Waziristan, Baluchistan, and the biggest of them is Afghanistan, what happens
when US withdraws its troops from there in 2015? There are endless topics which
are tinkering in the peace process between India and Pakistan which are sown by
the Pakistani Army and ISI, no doubt the civilians want to have better relations
with India but the question is will Mr. Sharif have the spine to say army and
ISI to stay away.
Mr.
Modi deal cautiously with Mr. Not So Sharif.