Tuesday 19 August 2014

Pakistan suffers from Attention deficiency syndrome.

Pakistan got a rude shock yesterday when there were told that talks will be called off if they continue to talk with the separatist, this stand shook the Pakistan foreign office which was taking advantage of previous Government’s lackluster and appeasing attitude, Pakistan has been pursuing a policy to create disturbances in Jammu & Kashmir in tandem with local separatists groups. However, with a new Government at the Centre with absolute majority under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the stand of India is quite clear- don’t mess around with me, Its not going to be business as usual, The NDA Government has made it clear to Pakistan that it will have to choose either India or the Kashmiri separatists. Even after the Indian High Commissioner’s warning, when Pakistan continued its dubious policy on Kashmiri separatists, the Government of India rightly called-off scheduled bilateral talks in Islamabad on August 26.
This sudden shocker has given fodder to many blabbering mouths in Indian media and of course the congress. As usual Media has got its facts and priorities wrong, some desperately want the talk to go on even if it costs our jawan’s life or that coward Haffez sayeed keeps spewing venom against India. Congress on the other hand was shouting through the roof that why doesn’t Modi speak up? Why is he going soft on Pakistan and by evening when the meeting was called off they started singing another tune that this government has no Pakistan centric policy and this was a knee jerk reaction; this complete U turn is quite expected from them but the Irony is they giving the government sermon on how to deal with Pakistan is laughable. At least after analyzing how they surrendered India’s interest in Sharm-el-sheikh, calling former Pakistan PM Raja Pervaiz Ashraf  a man of peace right after Mumbai blasts this sums up how Congress or UPA dealt with Pakistan or what their foreign policy was. Now since PM has made his intentions clear that he means business with any of his neighbors and a warning signal that you better take him and India seriously this has set a positive precedent as far as Nepal and Bhutan is concerned which is good news but question is how do you deal with your neighbors in East and West i.e. Pakistan and Bangladesh? Do we seriously have a policy in place? Where do we want this relation to go? We can’t use a carrot and stick policy with them forever.
Let’s analyse how one can deal with Pakistan. So to deal with your enemy you need to understand there mindset and what their actual intention is, so let’s go back to history for a while and understand why there is so much deep rooted hatred between India and Pakistan, it goes back to the Mr. Jinnah who wanted a separate state for Muslims because he could never be the PM of United India and he ganged up with Nehru and introduced two nation theory, where he was successful in getting Pakistan or to call Islamic state. All said that said and done this whole partition left a never healing wound on India where scores of people were forced to leave Pakistan overnight and millions were butchered, women raped and forced to convert and this was Jinnah’s idea of true secularism where they did not allow a minority (Hindus in Pakistan were in minority on 1947). Then they were not just content with Pakistan but also wanted to expand their influence to India and started creating trouble in Kashmir, then later on Kashmir joined India and we fought a war and as we all know rest is history. Now if you think that Kashmir is the root cause of all issues you are wrong, let’s assume we give away Kashmir enmity will never end. That is because Pakistan has declared itself as a Islamic State which is born for Islam and its sole purpose is to defend Islam and defeat Hindu State i.e. India (again one more proof that they are a secular state). If you have this mindset, you won't accept peace. Peace means defeat in the Pakistani scheme of things. Every
India-Pakistan negotiation that ends up ceding some ground to our western neighbor will, in fact, embolden it to seek even more. The matter will never end till the Pakistanis themselves abandon the ideology of a religion-based state (especially a religion-based state that is also setting itself up in opposition to the idea of India.) But that
realization is some decades away. (Now if you think I have cooked up this story or being biased against Islam then please check Google and see what Taliban said in a TV interview few years back; that India is a unfinished Job)  And then read this brilliant interview of Christine Fair  where she says "Pakistan is an ideological state. The Kashmir issue is not causal, it's symptomatic. If there were to be any kind of negotiation on Kashmir that gives up any inch of territory, it is not going to fix the situation." So there cannot be anything more clear indication than this, so whenever you see “Aman Ki Aashaa” and other bull shit that the liberals say on prime time TV debates, just shut down the TV it’s not going to yield any results.

The other propaganda that these liberals keep spreading is that people of Pakistan want peace but the Army does not want peace; how intelligent? In 68 years it was last year that Pakistan has finally had a democratic government that lasted a full term otherwise it was only ruled under Marshal laws; so Democracy to Pakistan is like Latin and Greek they just cannot accept Democracy (look at other Islamic states none of them have a stable Democratic govt. Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, all are going through a turbulent phase) It’s always been the Army/ISI which has called the shots and will always do, Christine Fair found that jihad is central to the Pakistani army's strategic culture: "The use of jihad is a way to make it seem as if everything the Pakistani army does is
Islamically justified." If jihad is the army's policy, it is the policy of the Pakistani state too. Hence, any resolution to India-Pak conflict means Civilian government will start calling the shots and Army will start losing its importance or may be forced to fall in line.
Yes, there are some people other side who want peace but do they have any representation?  If you go towards Northern Punjab the hub of Jihadi you see the civilians hate India more than the army these is where most of the terrorist are recruited. And come down south to Punjab province where the most of the army staff is recruited and the rest of Pakistan has its own conflict of survival.
Also, one important point I would like to make is in PoK the majority is of Muslim population is Shias and Pakistan is a Sunni majority so if Pakistan get Kashmir then again we will see these shias driven out of the valley.

If we accept this reality, we need to have our own counter-strategy to deal with an illogical Pakistan that is not driven by common motives of a nation-state. Whether to hold talks or not has to be part of strategy but we will talk on our terms should be the strategy, we should keep our other options open like strengthening partnership with our neighbors like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and China and try and alienate Pakistan in the region. Build our defense capability and be prepaid to fight on both the front that is Chinese side and Pakistan side. Expose the Pakistani double standards on all levels and in all major events be it UN, WTO, SAARC, Common wealth Nations etc. But the most important point is to Keep the Baluchistan issue burning because Baluchistan for Pakistan is like what Kashmir is to India so we get even when there is fire on both ends. Post American forces exit from Afghanistan is an important time period because Taliban will now start moving east i.e. towards India and we need to be prepaid for that as well, so our relationship with Afghanistan is going to be very critical in coming years. As Christine Fair notes, Pakistan is setting up a “civilizational” conflict with India, and such conflicts are not short-term ones. This means we should forget about a deal on Kashmir whatsoever. Fair herself dismisses ideas of a “grand bargain” on Kashmir as “rubbish.”
We need a 100 year strategy to counter Pakistan, not an on-off response mechanism to Pakistani provocations.


What the Modi government should do is not follow the carrot and stick policy and theatrical gestures and focus on long-term strategy with respect to Pakistan. Because; they have Attention deficiency syndrome.

Sunday 17 August 2014

Lion Roars From Red Fort.

Let me start this blog by wishing all readers a very Happy Independence day.
In today’s blog I will analyse Modi’s Independence Day speech.
In what can be described as one of the best Independence Day speech in our recent history. After seeing a decade of a puppet PM on a string, hiding behind a glass box (I still wonder why MMS use to deliver a speech from the bullet proof bracket. Who the hell on this earth with sane mind would ever even try to assassin MMS) and reading in reverse from Urdu texts we have a Prime Minister who talks from the heart and talks extempore.in the It has always been a favorite, almost obsessive pastime of India to show its politicians a mirror which reveals their ugly face — corrupt, incompetent and self-serving. Now, finally, a politician has shown India a mirror which reveals an almost equally ugly face — disrespecting of women, filthy and totally self-serving. It needed someone with the confidence of a Narendra Modi to admonish a constantly self-pitying citizenry or allow me to be blunt; we are hypocrites of the highest levels.
The fact is that both India's rulers and its ruled had got used to living in a political economy of entitlements. The dynasts for long believed that they had a right to be the ruling class. In turn, they would provide entitlements to the impoverished masses — from free food to free schooling to doles. It might well have been a cosy and functional arrangement, except that the rulers failed to adequately deliver the promised entitlements to the citizenry. The voters obliged the "entitled" rulers with their votes, but got little in return. They had every right to be angry and show their leaders a mirror. The rulers could never, not with any legitimacy anyway, admonish the citizens for their many failings. In his I-Day speech these are the problems in govt. that Modi talked about that there are governments within the govt. that are operating at cross purposes. Predictably, the pessimistic ones from the media and, of course, the Congress couldn’t see anything positive about Modi’s speech, his vision or his attention to key issues that touch the lives of people. They are used to grandiose bull shit like “Garibi Hatao” or “Aam Aadmi” non-sense.
Clearly, Modi wants to change the entrenched relationship between the ruler and the ruled. He is uniquely positioned to do so. He was never "entitled" to rule. If anything, he was always considered unfit to rule by the entrenched ruling class (which would have been happy with any mainstream alternative to Modi within the BJP). He has risen to the top overcoming several obstacles, many of which involved reforming his own personality and attitude. Modi has little patience for a citizenry which expects the government to spoon feed it. He will simply not allow all of India's failures to be placed at the door of his government. Society and individuals will have to share the blame for failure, while also sharing the credit for success. It is only natural that even in a speech of nearly an hour, no one can touch upon all the issues that concern India. Therefore, the right thing to do would be to talk about what he did say. And Modi did touch upon many issues from toilets to sons being more responsible to avoid crimes. He talked about cleanliness and hygiene. These are things that affect every citizen. He talked mostly about things that are clearly within the control of each citizen which does not take rocket science to do. He talked to the “people” directly and not to the usual “Durbaris” and useless “Pundits” to seek any applause from them.
One of the most important slogans from the speech that impressed me is “Make in India”.
Let’s analyse the history of Indian Manufacturing carefully. The US is a genius when it comes to “branding” and marketing. Ask a kid to name 10 famous brands from the US, I am sure anyone would be able to recall them. Google, Apple, McDonalds etc. Electronics in the US are invariably made in Taiwan or even in China. Now try naming 10 Indian brands internationally known. Can we? Given our resources and population we could have been a manufacturing giant without sacrificing our advantages in other sectors. A dramatic upward change in our industrial manufacturing output is inevitable and a must for our economic growth. The Chinese are no good at branding or marketing but they have become the manufacturing hub for the world and at rock bottom prices. No one understands this better than Narendra Modi who comes from the highly industrialised state of Gujarat.

The reason why we have failed to realise our potential as a manufacturing giant it is solely due to the Communist policies of the Congress.  There is no difference between Congress and the Communist who have kept people poor, uneducated, unskilled and unemployable. Modi stresses on skills and that is absolutely a must for us to become a manufacturing giant and also self-employment at the individual level. The new govt has already initiated steps for labour-law reforms which are essential for the manufacturing investment and growth. A dramatic growth in manufacturing also brings along with it a huge R&D set-up and the continuous process of innovation and value addition.
Second important point is women empowerment, and crimes against women.
The world’s largest democracy has a most pathetic record of highest crimes against women; in todays day and time when technology is used to save people’s life we Indians use to identify the sex of the child and then abort it. Now, the government has talked about reservation for women, women’s force etc. But can women's empowerment be the job of the state alone? No, society must play ball. Nobody can argue against the fact that the law and order machinery has to be overhauled to ensure that crimes against women are prevented and prosecuted more efficiently than now. But can the law and order machinery alone eliminate violence against women? It will always be tough for any law enforcement to prevent female foeticide. Modi is on the right track by demanding that the people at large also take responsibility for progressive change.

While he listed out many things which includes; sanitation, village modernization, highways, broadband connectivity and many more. What Modi has done is drawn an excellent picture of India, Implementation is what is key to India’s problem.