Monday 2 July 2018

1,200,000,000,000 Trillion Rupees was written off by all PSU in 2017-18. Are we staring at a banking crisis??


Public sector banks accounted for over 85% of total frauds reported in the banking system in 2017-18, according to the RBI’s financial stability report (FSR). The banking system reported 6,500 frauds, amounting to more than 30,000 crore.

Yes, in 2018 we are getting to learn how poor the PSU banks are regulated, pathetic internal controls, poor IT infra, and least to say the this raises serious questions on how these banks are governaned?
The NPA mess is the biggest scam that the UPA Government has given in legacy to the NDA . 
Indian Banking sector, especially the state-owned banking segment, is under severe stress with mounting bad loans and an increase in bank fraud, among other issues. More than half of the listed state owned banks that account for about 20% of overall system advances are already under Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework, and a few more are expected join the list soon.
The non-performing assets (NPA) situation in the banking sector is alarming. At least 15.8% of the total loans in the banking sector are tagged under the stressed asset category. The nudge from RBI to clean up the system has shown the actual depth of the trouble on the books of Indian banks (hidden bad loans).
State-owned banks have already reported record level of bad loans resulting in huge cumulative losses of about Rs.55,000 crore in financial year (FY) 18 (reported thus far). Recent capital infusion of about Rs.88,000 crore was too little and too late.
The passage of the bankruptcy law was definitely a major step in the process of overhauling the banking sector. But the task is half-done yet. It needs to be well-supported by other comprehensive reforms in the sector such as adding more judicial muscle to NCLT; incentivizing faster resolution of NPAs through ARCs; reviewing ownership, control and governance issues of state-owned banks in the long run.
Bashing our banks, particularly the government-owned ones, which roughly have 70% market share of assets, has become a favourite pastime for many. Instead of going deep into the causes of deterioration in health and the possible remedies, let’s focus on some of the vital statistics to get a sense of the state of affairs in the 150 trillion banking system in the worlds fastest growing large economy.
Public sector banks (PSU banks) have written off non-performing assets (NPAs) worth Rs1.20 trillion, an amount that is nearly one-and-a-half times more than their total losses posted in 2017-18, according to official data. This is the first time in a decade that banks have made huge write-offs on bad loans while booking hefty losses.
A write-off means that the bank has made 100% provision from its earning against that account. This NPA is no longer part of the bank’s balance sheet.

The Table below gives the broader picture of the Gross and Net NPA of PSU and Pvt Banks. (Data taken from official RBI site) (Amount in Millions)
NATIONALISED BANKS
Gross NPA
Net NPAs
Bank
As on March 31 2017
Write-off during the Year
As on March 31 2018
As on March 31 2017
As on March 31 2018
STATE BANK OF INDIA & ITS ASSOCIATES
1219686
278388
1778106
688944
969322
ALLAHABAD BANK
153846
24421
206878
102925
134335
ANDHRA BANK
114436
16231
176700
60357
103548
BANK OF BARODA
405210
45156
427187
194065
180802
BANK OF INDIA
498791
72306
520445
279964
253050
BANK OF MAHARASHTRA
103859
13571
171887
69193
112296
BHARATIYA MAHILA BANK LTD.
14
-
550
7
462
CANARA BANK
316378
55448
342020
208329
216490
CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA
227210
23960
272510
132420
142180
CORPORATION BANK
145443
35737
170452
91601
116922
DENA BANK
85605
8334
126187
52305
77351
IDBI BANK LIMITED
248751
28682
447526
146434
252058
INDIAN BANK
88270
12254
98651
54194
56066
INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK
300486
29540
350983
192126
197493
ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE
147018
23083
228593
99322
141178
PUNJAB AND SIND BANK
42291
4906
62976
29495
43751
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
558183
92051
553705
354226
327021
SYNDICATE BANK
138322
12707
176093
90149
104110
UCO BANK
209077
19339
225410
114436
107034
UNION BANK OF INDIA
241709
12637
337123
140259
188321
UNITED BANK OF INDIA
94710
7137
109520
61107
65919
VIJAYA BANK
60271
10683
63818
42768
41182
NATIONALISED BANKS
4179879
548183
5069213
2515681
2861567


PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS
Gross NPA
Net NPAs
Bank
As on March 31 2017
Write-off during the Year
As on March 31 2018
As on March 31 2017
As on March 31 2018
AXIS BANK LIMITED
60875
22221
212805
25221
86266
BANDHAN BANK LIMITED
188
312
863
102
612
CATHOLIC SYRIAN BANK LTD
4469
1393
6001
3452
4476
CITY UNION BANK LIMITED
5120
1635
6820
3232
4083
DCB BANK LIMITED
1974
444
2542
975
1244
FEDERAL BANK LTD
16678
2364
17271
9500
9412
HDFC BANK LTD.
43928
23859
58857
13204
18440
ICICI BANK LIMITED
262213
121919
421594
129631
252168
IDFC BANK LIMITED
30583
0
15421
11390
5765
INDUSIND BANK LTD
7768
4655
10549
3218
4389
JAMMU & KASHMIR BANK LTD
43686
8570
60000
21640
24254
KARNATAKA BANK LTD
11804
4580
15816
7955
9747
KARUR VYSYA BANK LTD
5112
2638
14838
2162
10335
KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LTD.
28381
4223
35786
12620
17181
LAKSHMI VILAS BANK LTD
3913
915
6402
2316
4184
NAINITAL BANK LTD
1210
6
1643
277
395
RBL BANK LIMITED
2081
687
3568
1244
1899
SOUTH INDIAN BANK LTD
15624
738
11490
11853
6746
TAMILNAD MERCANTILE BANK LTD
4189
2438
6486
2007
3819
THE DHANALAKSHMI BANK LTD
4589
1890
3156
1932
1665
YES BANK LTD.
7490
1421
20186
2845
10723
PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS
561874
206907
932092
266774
477802

Till 1969, the State Bank of India (SBI) was the only bank that was not privately owned. It was called the Imperial Bank before its nationalisation in 1955. There were primarily two reasons why the ownership of these 14 banks was transferred to the government. The first was the unpredictable manner in which these functioned as private entities.As this report in The Economic Times points out, there were 361 private banks which "failed" across the country in the period from 1947 to 1955, translating to an average of over 40 banks per year. More often than not, this resulted in depositors losing all their money as they were not offered any guarantee by their respective banks.
Second, these commercial banks were seen as catering to the large industries and businesses. Agriculture, as a sector, was largely ignored by these banks
So What Benefits Did Bank Nationalisation Promise? In 1969 only depositors lost money in 2018 tax payers money is literally flushed down the drain by these so called Nationalised bank.
In light of these circumstances, the stated motive of this measure was to make credit availability easy for what was called the “priority sector” – constituting agriculture, small industries, traders and entrepreneurs. Moreover, the focus was also on opening up of bank branches in the rural and backward areas.
Even as frauds and murky dealings continue to tumble out of the closets of the biggest names in Indian banking, there is danger in assuming that the problem is restricted to that industry.
India’s banking crisis isn’t just about the likes of Punjab National Bank, Bank of Maharashtra or ICICI Bank Ltd. India’s corporate sector, including some of its largest companies, is as much a part of the toxic environment that is now unravelling before us.
There are scores of reasons for the appalling performance of the banks some of the prime reasons  are
Political appointments; Majority  of the CMD, Directors in the PSU were all political appointee who would open the bank treasure on one phone call from the south block!  How can a scam of Nirav Modi go untraced for 4-5 years when there are 3-4 types of audits which happen every year? Definitely one rouge manager in some branch of Mumbai cannot pull off the scam of a millennium!
Corrupt Finance Minister; P Chidambaram who now is running from one court to other seeking bail for himself and his family members the moment he completes taking pot shots at the Modi govt. This guy is was cheap and corrupt that he ordered Canara Bank to change its logo and sign board and in turn he made a cut off the total amount spent on money spent on doing the overhauling the signboard etc. One can gage how the finance of the country were handled during UPA 1&2
Every Indian company, large and small, has at some stage put pressure on bankers to bend the rules either for sanctioning loans or changing the repayment terms. Even as we rail against the executives and the boards of the banks for conniving with borrowers, let’s not forget who they were conniving with and for what.
Whether it is Rotomac or Nirav Modi, the script remains unchanged. Banks have always been a fertile ground for political and corporate patronage.There’s nothing new about this. For decades, money in the banks has been treated as the personal fiefdom of a few.
In the 1980s, there were the notorious loan melas, where politicians doled out funds through nationalized banks without bothering about basic hygiene factors. Often, even the loan application forms would be filled by bank staffers.
Post 1991, with the onset of private banking, it was expected that more care and caution would be exercised. But as the Indian economy moved into high gear following a global surge in growth, Indian companies suddenly acquired a voracious appetite for bank loans to fuel their many ill-conceived investments.
Significantly, once the easy-money regime changed, particularly after Raghuram Rajan turned the central bank’s lens on the lending and provisioning practices of the banks, Indian companies’ appetite for investments also dried up.
It is one thing to plan ambitious projects or large acquisitions with the reassuring backing of soft loans at nominal rates of interest and flexible repayment terms and quite another to do so on more stringent forms of financing.
The returns needed to service a bank loan are different from those needed to service any other form of financing. 
Not surprisingly, after 2010, there has been a decline in the share of gross capital formation (GCF) in GDP, from 38.2% to 32.3% between 2011–2012 and 2013–2014, with the corporate sector’s contribution as GCF also
If banks have failed to judge the creditworthiness of the companies they have lent to or failed to detect those initial signs of stress before a loan turns non-performing, it is in part because of the elaborate efforts companies make to window dress their accounts.
When the chairman of Syndicate Bank is arrested for taking a bribe from the promoters of Bhushan Steel, both are equally culpable and deserve opprobrium.
But when Bhushan Steel becomes the norm for corporate behaviour and a symbol of the manipulative power of our largest companies, it is time to worry.
By cornering an abnormal share of bank loans, large Indian companies have also created a canopy for themselves, one under which more deserving and needy smaller businesses fail to grow for want of credit.
Bad loans at Indian banks, especially those controlled by the government, will increase further in the year to 31 March, placing additional strain on the already stressed financial system, a central bank study warned.
Gross non-performing asset (NPA) ratio of banks will rise to 12.2% by March 2019 from 11.6% at the end of the previous fiscal if economic conditions remain the same, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) financial stability report.
The report said weak profitability of banks is an additional concern as it prevents lenders from setting aside adequate money to cover potential losses on loans and makes them vulnerable to adverse shocks. 
In a scenario of severe stress, this ratio may rise to as high as 13.3% by March, the report said. For public sector banks, this ratio may jump to 17.3% by March.
Rising bad loans will also lead to further erosion of capital buffers. The capital adequacy ratio of banks will drop to 12.8% by March 2019 from 13.5% at the end of the previous year. A severe shock could, however, bring down the capital adequacy ratio of as many as 20 banks, mostly state-run, below 9%, the report said.
Analysing the effectiveness of prompt corrective action (PCA), the stability report said the gross NPA ratio of state-run banks under PCA will worsen to 22.3% by March, with six banks likely to experience capital shortfall under the baseline scenario.
Modi Govt has a herculean task to tackle the NPA mess on one hand, fund the credit demand, and manage the fiscal deficit without increasing market borrowing. Raising taxes would make him unpopular in the election year. With the global economy going through a slugging phase with rising trade wars between US and China, Its India which is suffering as a collateral.
If NaMo manages to pull off this banking mess and sets it in order, he would have laid the foundation for a strong economic growth in the coming decade!